Real San Joaquín 1–2 Santiago City: Result & Stats

Real San Joaquín

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Santiago City

J. Carreno 56' (pen)

Unknown 77', 65'

3/22/2026

Segunda División · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real San Joaquín49%

×Draw23%

Santiago City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San JoaquínExpected goals in this matchSantiago City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.37

Real San Joaquín

1.85

Santiago City

1.37

Real San Joaquín creates 35% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

1.39

1.35

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Real San Joaquín

1.20

Santiago City

1.39

allows per match

Real San Joaquín

1.35

Santiago City

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Santiago City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

Santiago City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw

71%

Real San Joaquín or Santiago City

77%

Draw or Santiago City

51%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

27%

Santiago City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

84%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

55%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

28%

Santiago City 1+ goals

75%

Santiago City 2+ goals

40%

Santiago City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

63%

Santiago City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Santiago City away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + Santiago City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Santiago City attack 1.39 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more

49%

level

23%

Santiago City scores more

29%

Real San Joaquín at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real San Joaquín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

45+3'

46'

52'

56'

J. CarrenoPenalty

65'

71'

74'

77'

Real

Santiago

12

40

39

23

6

10

31

22

18

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

9

14

19

22

⚽

Carreno

Manager: Jaime Lizama

Real San Joaquín substitutes

31Saul30Contreras18MarquezFariasLeger13GonzalezReyes

Manager: Cristian Febre Santis Alejandro

Santiago City substitutes

Lobos17Cardenas5Gatica1Montecinos3Muller7Saez19Aguero

Match Recap: Real San Joaquín vs Santiago City

Santiago City beat Real San Joaquín 2-1 in Segunda División on March 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Carreno (56' pen), ? (65', 77').

Real San Joaquín vs Santiago City — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real San Joaquín vs Santiago City