Real San Joaquín 2–1 Linares Unido: Result & Stats

Real San Joaquín

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Linares Unido

3/11/2024

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Municipal de San Joaquín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Real San Joaquín37%

×Draw27%

Linares Unido36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San JoaquínExpected goals in this matchLinares Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Real San Joaquín

1.23

Linares Unido

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

1.20

creates per match

1.07

1.35

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Real San Joaquín

1.20

Linares Unido

1.07

allows per match

Real San Joaquín

1.35

Linares Unido

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

Linares Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw

64%

Real San Joaquín or Linares Unido

73%

Draw or Linares Unido

63%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

16%

Linares Unido wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

71%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

35%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

13%

Linares Unido 1+ goals

70%

Linares Unido 2+ goals

34%

Linares Unido 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

51%

Linares Unido (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more

37%

level

27%

Linares Unido scores more

36%

Real San Joaquín at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real San Joaquín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff