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Real San Joaquín vs D. Puerto Montt — Segunda División 2020

Real San Joaquín
Real San Joaquín
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
7/28/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal de San Joaquín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Real San Joaquín30%
×Draw27%
D. Puerto Montt44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real San Joaquín
1.10
D. Puerto Montt
1.40

D. Puerto Montt creates 27% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

creates per match

Real San Joaquín
1.20
D. Puerto Montt
1.44

allows per match

Real San Joaquín
1.35
D. Puerto Montt
1.00

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par
D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

D. Puerto Montt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw
56%
Real San Joaquín or D. Puerto Montt
73%
Draw or D. Puerto Montt
70%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+
12%
D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals
67%
Real San Joaquín 2+ goals
30%
Real San Joaquín 3+ goals
10%
D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
75%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
41%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)
40%
D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

D. Puerto Montt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + D. Puerto Montt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.44 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more
30%
level
27%
D. Puerto Montt scores more
44%

D. Puerto Montt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 2–2 D. Puerto Montt

Real San Joaquín and D. Puerto Montt drew 2-2 in Segunda División on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de San Joaquín in San Joaquín.