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Real San Joaquín vs Barnechea — Copa Chile 2019

Real San Joaquín
Real San Joaquín
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Barnechea
Barnechea
3/28/2022Copa ChileCopa Chile · 2nd RoundEstadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real San Joaquín24%
×Draw21%
Barnechea55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real San Joaquín
1.39
Barnechea
2.17

Barnechea creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Real San Joaquín
0.67
Barnechea
1.67

allows per match

Real San Joaquín
2.67
Barnechea
2.11

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw
45%
Real San Joaquín or Barnechea
79%
Draw or Barnechea
76%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+
10%
Barnechea wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals
75%
Real San Joaquín 2+ goals
40%
Real San Joaquín 3+ goals
16%
Barnechea 1+ goals
89%
Barnechea 2+ goals
64%
Barnechea 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)
31%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 0.67 + Barnechea defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Barnechea attack 1.67 + Real San Joaquín defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more
24%
level
21%
Barnechea scores more
55%

Barnechea at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real San Joaquín vs Barnechea

Barnechea beat Real San Joaquín 3-0 in Copa Chile on March 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Valparaíso.