Real San Andrés W vs Santa Fe W — Liga Femenina 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Real San Andrés W19%
Santa Fe W57%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Santa Fe W creates 99% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 64 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real San Andrés W ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real San Andrés W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches
Santa Fe W away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 64 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real San Andrés W attack 0.94 + Santa Fe W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86
Santa Fe W attack 1.78 + Real San Andrés W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Santa Fe W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Santa Fe W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Deportivo Cali WSanta Fe W
Atlético Nacional W
Independiente Medellín W
Internacional Palmira
América de Cali W
Orsomarso W
Millonarios W
La Equidad W
Deportivo Pasto W
Junior WReal San Andrés W
Once Caldas W
Alianza W
Fortaleza
Atlético Bucaramanga WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Real San Andrés W host Santa Fe W on Wednesday, 30 March 2022 at 18:00. The match is part of the Liga Femenina 2020/2021 season.
Liga Femenina: Real San Andrés W 0–2 Santa Fe W
Santa Fe W beat Real San Andrés W 2-0 in Liga Femenina on March 30, 2022.
The match was played at Estadio Villa Concha in Piedecuesta.