Real San Andrés W 0–3 Cúcuta Deportivo W

Real San Andrés W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Cúcuta Deportivo W

3/17/2024

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 4Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real San Andrés W44%

×Draw26%

Cúcuta Deportivo W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San Andrés WExpected goals in this matchCúcuta Deportivo W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.17

Real San Andrés W

1.47

Cúcuta Deportivo W

1.17

Real San Andrés W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 7 away

0.94

creates per match

0.71

1.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Real San Andrés W

0.94

Cúcuta Deportivo W

0.71

allows per match

Real San Andrés W

1.63

Cúcuta Deportivo W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Cúcuta Deportivo W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Andrés W ↓

Cúcuta Deportivo W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real San Andrés W or draw

70%

Real San Andrés W or Cúcuta Deportivo W

74%

Draw or Cúcuta Deportivo W

56%

Winning margin

Real San Andrés W wins by 2+

21%

Cúcuta Deportivo W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real San Andrés W 1+ goals

77%

Real San Andrés W 2+ goals

43%

Real San Andrés W 3+ goals

18%

Cúcuta Deportivo W 1+ goals

69%

Cúcuta Deportivo W 2+ goals

33%

Cúcuta Deportivo W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)

59%

Cúcuta Deportivo W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Andrés W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Cúcuta Deportivo W away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Andrés W attack 0.94 + Cúcuta Deportivo W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cúcuta Deportivo W attack 0.71 + Real San Andrés W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real San Andrés W scores more

44%

level

26%

Cúcuta Deportivo W scores more

30%

Real San Andrés W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real San Andrés W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff