Real San Andrés W 1–0 Cortuluá W: Result & Stats

Real San Andrés W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cortuluá W

3/12/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 6Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real San Andrés W37%

×Draw26%

Cortuluá W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San Andrés WExpected goals in this matchCortuluá W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

Real San Andrés W

1.38

Cortuluá W

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

0.94

creates per match

1.12

1.63

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Real San Andrés W

0.94

Cortuluá W

1.12

allows per match

Real San Andrés W

1.63

Cortuluá W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Cortuluá W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Andrés W ↓

Cortuluá W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real San Andrés W or draw

63%

Real San Andrés W or Cortuluá W

74%

Draw or Cortuluá W

63%

Winning margin

Real San Andrés W wins by 2+

17%

Cortuluá W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Real San Andrés W 1+ goals

75%

Real San Andrés W 2+ goals

40%

Real San Andrés W 3+ goals

16%

Cortuluá W 1+ goals

75%

Cortuluá W 2+ goals

40%

Cortuluá W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)

50%

Cortuluá W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Andrés W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Cortuluá W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Andrés W attack 0.94 + Cortuluá W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cortuluá W attack 1.12 + Real San Andrés W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real San Andrés W scores more

37%

level

26%

Cortuluá W scores more

37%

Real San Andrés W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real San Andrés W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff