Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real San Andrés vs Atlético Bucaramanga — Liga Femenina 2020

Real San Andrés
Real San Andrés
FT
1 – 2
Atlético Bucaramanga
Atlético Bucaramanga
11/9/2020Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 4Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Real San Andrés52%
×Draw24%
Atlético Bucaramanga24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real San Andrés
1.69
Atlético Bucaramanga
1.06

Real San Andrés creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 39 away

creates per match

Real San Andrés
0.94
Atlético Bucaramanga
0.49

allows per match

Real San Andrés
1.63
Atlético Bucaramanga
2.44

finishing

Real San Andrés+0.00on par
Atlético Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Andrés ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real San Andrés or draw
76%
Real San Andrés or Atlético Bucaramanga
76%
Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga
48%

Winning margin

Real San Andrés wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Bucaramanga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real San Andrés 1+ goals
82%
Real San Andrés 2+ goals
50%
Real San Andrés 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Bucaramanga 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Bucaramanga 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Bucaramanga 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real San Andrés (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Andrés at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Andrés attack 0.94 + Atlético Bucaramanga defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlético Bucaramanga attack 0.49 + Real San Andrés defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real San Andrés scores more
52%
level
24%
Atlético Bucaramanga scores more
24%

Real San Andrés at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real San Andrés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real San Andrés vs Atlético Bucaramanga

Atlético Bucaramanga beat Real San Andrés 2-1 in Liga Femenina on November 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.