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Real Salt Lake vs Northern Colorado — US Open Cup 2018

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
4/21/2022US Open CupUS Open Cup · 3rd RoundRio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Real Salt Lake24%
×Draw24%
Northern Colorado52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
1.04
Northern Colorado
1.67

Northern Colorado creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
0.75
Northern Colorado
1.33

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
2.00
Northern Colorado
1.33

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
48%
Real Salt Lake or Northern Colorado
76%
Draw or Northern Colorado
76%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
9%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
65%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
28%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
9%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
81%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
50%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
31%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 0.75 + Northern Colorado defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Northern Colorado attack 1.33 + Real Salt Lake defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
24%
level
24%
Northern Colorado scores more
52%

Northern Colorado at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Salt Lake vs Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado beat Real Salt Lake 1-0 in US Open Cup on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, Utah.