Real Salt Lake 2–0 DC United: Result & Stats

Real Salt Lake

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

DC United

Z. Gozo 77'

J. Russell 23'

6/15/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 18Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Real Salt Lake46%

×Draw25%

DC United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Salt LakeExpected goals in this matchDC United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.18

Real Salt Lake

1.54

DC United

1.18

Real Salt Lake creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

1.73

creates per match

1.21

1.15

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Real Salt Lake

1.73

DC United

1.21

allows per match

Real Salt Lake

1.15

DC United

1.36

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.30scores more

DC United+0.02on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

DC United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw

71%

Real Salt Lake or DC United

75%

Draw or DC United

54%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

23%

DC United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

79%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

45%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

20%

DC United 1+ goals

69%

DC United 2+ goals

33%

DC United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

61%

DC United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.15 · 32 matches

DC United away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.73 + DC United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

DC United attack 1.21 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more

46%

level

25%

DC United scores more

29%

Real Salt Lake at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Glad

Real Salt Lake · D

7.5

Match Events

23'

J. Russell↳ D. Goncalves

46'

A. Hezarkhani← J. Russell

48'

62'

62'

62'

62'

69'

A. Piol← W. Agada

72'

J. Stroud← Gabriel Pirani

73'

Brayan Vera

76'

H. Kijima← B. Servania

77'

J. Murrell← C. Antley

77'

Z. Gozo↳ A. Katranis

79'

Zavier GozoGoal confirmed

82'

S. Junqua← A. Katranis

83'

T. Wolff← D. Goncalves

89'

Ariath PiolGoal cancelled

90+4'

L. Brook← Z. Gozo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealDC

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots8

1.86Expected Goals (xG)0.48

10Corners2

16Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots8

6On Target1

6Off Target3

8Blocked4

12Inside Box3

8Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

485Total Passes391

404Accurate Passes311

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.30Goals Prevented0.30

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1