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Real Potosí vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2019

Real Potosí
Real Potosí
PST
00:00
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
12/28/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 26Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Real Potosí53%
×Draw22%
Sport Boys25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Potosí
2.01
Sport Boys
1.33

Real Potosí creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 25 away

creates per match

Real Potosí
1.78
Sport Boys
0.88

allows per match

Real Potosí
1.78
Sport Boys
2.24

finishing

Real Potosí+0.00on par
Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Potosí ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Real Potosí or draw
75%
Real Potosí or Sport Boys
78%
Draw or Sport Boys
47%

Winning margin

Real Potosí wins by 2+
31%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Potosí 1+ goals
87%
Real Potosí 2+ goals
59%
Real Potosí 3+ goals
32%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
74%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
38%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real Potosí (draw refunded)
68%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Potosí at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 60 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Potosí attack 1.78 + Sport Boys defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sport Boys attack 0.88 + Real Potosí defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Potosí scores more
53%
level
22%
Sport Boys scores more
25%

Real Potosí at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Potosí vs Sport Boys — Match Preview

Real Potosí face Sport Boys on December 28, 2019 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Potosí host Sport Boys at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.