Real Potosí 3–0 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats

Real Potosí

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Cruz

9/21/2021

Primera División · Round 20Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Real Potosí53%

×Draw22%

Santa Cruz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PotosíExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.34

Real Potosí

2.02

Santa Cruz

1.34

Real Potosí creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 83 away

1.78

creates per match

0.90

1.78

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Real Potosí

1.78

Santa Cruz

0.90

allows per match

Real Potosí

1.78

Santa Cruz

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Potosí+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Potosí ↓

Santa Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Real Potosí or draw

75%

Real Potosí or Santa Cruz

78%

Draw or Santa Cruz

47%

Winning margin

Real Potosí wins by 2+

31%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Potosí 1+ goals

87%

Real Potosí 2+ goals

60%

Real Potosí 3+ goals

33%

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

74%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

39%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Real Potosí (draw refunded)

68%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Potosí at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 60 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Potosí attack 1.78 + Santa Cruz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Santa Cruz attack 0.90 + Real Potosí defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Potosí scores more

53%

level

22%

Santa Cruz scores more

25%

Real Potosí at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff