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Real Potosí vs San José — Primera División 2019

Real Potosí
Real Potosí
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San José
San José
4/11/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 4Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Real Potosí53%
×Draw21%
San José26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Potosí
2.08
San José
1.42

Real Potosí creates 46% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 54 away

creates per match

Real Potosí
1.78
San José
1.06

allows per match

Real Potosí
1.78
San José
2.39

finishing

Real Potosí+0.00on par
San José+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Potosí ↓

San José →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Real Potosí or draw
74%
Real Potosí or San José
79%
Draw or San José
47%

Winning margin

Real Potosí wins by 2+
31%
San José wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Potosí 1+ goals
87%
Real Potosí 2+ goals
61%
Real Potosí 3+ goals
34%
San José 1+ goals
76%
San José 2+ goals
41%
San José 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Potosí (draw refunded)
67%
San José (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Potosí at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 60 matches

San José away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Potosí attack 1.78 + San José defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.08

San José attack 1.06 + Real Potosí defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Potosí scores more
53%
level
21%
San José scores more
26%

Real Potosí at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Potosí vs San José

Real Potosí beat San José 3-0 in Primera División on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.