Real Potosí 3–2 Club Destroyers: Result & Stats

Real Potosí

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Club Destroyers

2/11/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Potosí62%

×Draw19%

Club Destroyers19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PotosíExpected goals in this matchClub Destroyers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.18

Real Potosí

2.29

Club Destroyers

1.18

Real Potosí creates 94% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 26 away

1.78

creates per match

0.58

1.78

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Real Potosí

1.78

Club Destroyers

0.58

allows per match

Real Potosí

1.78

Club Destroyers

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Potosí+0.00on par

Club Destroyers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Potosí ↓

Club Destroyers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Real Potosí or draw

81%

Real Potosí or Club Destroyers

81%

Draw or Club Destroyers

38%

Winning margin

Real Potosí wins by 2+

40%

Club Destroyers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Potosí 1+ goals

90%

Real Potosí 2+ goals

66%

Real Potosí 3+ goals

40%

Club Destroyers 1+ goals

69%

Club Destroyers 2+ goals

33%

Club Destroyers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Potosí (draw refunded)

77%

Club Destroyers (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Potosí at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 60 matches

Club Destroyers away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Potosí attack 1.78 + Club Destroyers defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.29

Club Destroyers attack 0.58 + Real Potosí defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Real Potosí scores more

62%

level

19%

Club Destroyers scores more

19%

Real Potosí at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Real Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff