Real Podunavci 1–4 Vrelo Sport: Result & Stats

Real Podunavci

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Vrelo Sport

5/22/2024

Srpska Liga - West · West - 28Stadion Real Podunavci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Podunavci52%

×Draw25%

Vrelo Sport23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PodunavciExpected goals in this matchVrelo Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Real Podunavci

1.61

Vrelo Sport

0.97

Real Podunavci creates 66% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

1.49

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Real Podunavci

1.49

Vrelo Sport

0.93

allows per match

Real Podunavci

1.00

Vrelo Sport

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Podunavci ↓

Vrelo Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Podunavci or draw

77%

Real Podunavci or Vrelo Sport

75%

Draw or Vrelo Sport

48%

Winning margin

Real Podunavci wins by 2+

28%

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Podunavci 1+ goals

80%

Real Podunavci 2+ goals

48%

Real Podunavci 3+ goals

22%

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals

62%

Vrelo Sport 2+ goals

25%

Vrelo Sport 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Podunavci (draw refunded)

70%

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Podunavci at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Podunavci attack 1.49 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Real Podunavci defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Podunavci scores more

52%

level

25%

Vrelo Sport scores more

23%

Real Podunavci at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Podunavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff