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Real Pilar vs Mercedes — Primera C 2026

Real Pilar
Real Pilar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mercedes
Mercedes
8/3/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 5Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Real Pilar51%
×Draw29%
Mercedes20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pilar
1.28
Mercedes
0.69

Real Pilar creates 86% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 49 away

creates per match

Real Pilar
1.39
Mercedes
0.65

allows per match

Real Pilar
0.72
Mercedes
1.18

finishing

Real Pilar+0.00on par
Mercedes+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pilar ↓

Mercedes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Real Pilar or draw
80%
Real Pilar or Mercedes
71%
Draw or Mercedes
49%

Winning margin

Real Pilar wins by 2+
24%
Mercedes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Pilar 1+ goals
72%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
37%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
14%
Mercedes 1+ goals
50%
Mercedes 2+ goals
15%
Mercedes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Pilar (draw refunded)
72%
Mercedes (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pilar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 98 matches

Mercedes away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.18 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pilar attack 1.39 + Mercedes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mercedes attack 0.65 + Real Pilar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Pilar scores more
51%
level
29%
Mercedes scores more
20%

Real Pilar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Pilar vs Mercedes

Real Pilar beat Mercedes 1-0 in Primera C on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.