Real Pilar 0–1 Ituzaingó: Result & Stats

Real Pilar

FT

0 – 1

Ituzaingó

8/8/2021

Primera C · Apertura - 3Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Real Pilar43%

×Draw31%

Ituzaingó27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PilarExpected goals in this matchItuzaingó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.83

Real Pilar

1.14

Ituzaingó

0.83

Real Pilar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 95 away

1.39

creates per match

0.94

0.72

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Real Pilar

1.39

Ituzaingó

0.94

allows per match

Real Pilar

0.72

Ituzaingó

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Pilar+0.00on par

Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pilar ↓

Ituzaingó →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Real Pilar or draw

73%

Real Pilar or Ituzaingó

69%

Draw or Ituzaingó

57%

Winning margin

Real Pilar wins by 2+

18%

Ituzaingó wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Pilar 1+ goals

68%

Real Pilar 2+ goals

32%

Real Pilar 3+ goals

11%

Ituzaingó 1+ goals

56%

Ituzaingó 2+ goals

20%

Ituzaingó 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Pilar (draw refunded)

62%

Ituzaingó (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pilar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 98 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pilar attack 1.39 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ituzaingó attack 0.94 + Real Pilar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Pilar scores more

43%

level

31%

Ituzaingó scores more

27%

Real Pilar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff