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Real Pilar vs General Lamadrid — Primera C 2026

Real Pilar
Real Pilar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
General Lamadrid
General Lamadrid
12/7/2024Primera CPrimera C · Championship - FinalsEstadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Real Pilar49%
×Draw28%
General Lamadrid23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pilar
1.38
General Lamadrid
0.86

Real Pilar creates 60% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 136 away

creates per match

Real Pilar
1.39
General Lamadrid
1.01

allows per match

Real Pilar
0.72
General Lamadrid
1.36

finishing

Real Pilar+0.00on par
General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pilar ↓

General Lamadrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Pilar or draw
77%
Real Pilar or General Lamadrid
72%
Draw or General Lamadrid
51%

Winning margin

Real Pilar wins by 2+
24%
General Lamadrid wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Pilar 1+ goals
75%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
40%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
16%
General Lamadrid 1+ goals
58%
General Lamadrid 2+ goals
21%
General Lamadrid 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Pilar (draw refunded)
68%
General Lamadrid (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pilar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 98 matches

General Lamadrid away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.36 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pilar attack 1.39 + General Lamadrid defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

General Lamadrid attack 1.01 + Real Pilar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Pilar scores more
49%
level
28%
General Lamadrid scores more
23%

Real Pilar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Real Pilar 2–0 General Lamadrid

Real Pilar beat General Lamadrid 2-0 in Primera C on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.