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Real Pilar vs Deportivo Muñiz — Primera C 2026

Real Pilar
Real Pilar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
2/24/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Real Pilar51%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Muñiz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pilar
1.36
Deportivo Muñiz
0.77

Real Pilar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 47 away

creates per match

Real Pilar
1.39
Deportivo Muñiz
0.83

allows per match

Real Pilar
0.72
Deportivo Muñiz
1.34

finishing

Real Pilar+0.00on par
Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pilar ↓

Deportivo Muñiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Pilar or draw
79%
Real Pilar or Deportivo Muñiz
72%
Draw or Deportivo Muñiz
49%

Winning margin

Real Pilar wins by 2+
25%
Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Pilar 1+ goals
74%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
39%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Pilar (draw refunded)
71%
Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pilar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 98 matches

Deportivo Muñiz away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pilar attack 1.39 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Muñiz attack 0.83 + Real Pilar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Pilar scores more
51%
level
28%
Deportivo Muñiz scores more
21%

Real Pilar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Real Pilar 2–2 Deportivo Muñiz

Real Pilar and Deportivo Muñiz drew 2-2 in Primera C on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.