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Real Pilar vs Comunicaciones — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Real Pilar
Real Pilar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
11/8/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 20Municipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Real Pilar44%
×Draw28%
Comunicaciones27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pilar
1.28
Comunicaciones
0.94

Real Pilar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 139 away

creates per match

Real Pilar
1.38
Comunicaciones
1.00

allows per match

Real Pilar
0.88
Comunicaciones
1.19

finishing

Real Pilar+0.00on par
Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pilar ↓

Comunicaciones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Pilar or draw
73%
Real Pilar or Comunicaciones
72%
Draw or Comunicaciones
56%

Winning margin

Real Pilar wins by 2+
20%
Comunicaciones wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Pilar 1+ goals
72%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
37%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
14%
Comunicaciones 1+ goals
61%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
24%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Pilar (draw refunded)
62%
Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pilar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pilar attack 1.38 + Comunicaciones defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Comunicaciones attack 1.00 + Real Pilar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Pilar scores more
44%
level
28%
Comunicaciones scores more
27%

Real Pilar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Pilar vs Comunicaciones

Real Pilar beat Comunicaciones 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Municipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza in Buenos Aires.