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Real Pilar vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

Real Pilar
Real Pilar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
9/3/2022Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 12Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Real Pilar46%
×Draw30%
Central Cordoba24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pilar
1.23
Central Cordoba
0.80

Real Pilar creates 54% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 136 away

creates per match

Real Pilar
1.39
Central Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Real Pilar
0.72
Central Cordoba
1.06

finishing

Real Pilar+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pilar ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Pilar or draw
76%
Real Pilar or Central Cordoba
70%
Draw or Central Cordoba
54%

Winning margin

Real Pilar wins by 2+
21%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Pilar 1+ goals
71%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
35%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
13%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
55%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
19%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Pilar (draw refunded)
66%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pilar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 98 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pilar attack 1.39 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Central Cordoba attack 0.89 + Real Pilar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Pilar scores more
46%
level
30%
Central Cordoba scores more
24%

Real Pilar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Real Pilar 0–1 Central Cordoba

Central Cordoba beat Real Pilar 1-0 in Primera C on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.