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Real Pharm vs Rubikon — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Real Pharm
Real Pharm
CANC
00:00
Rubikon
Rubikon
4/30/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Pharm40%
×Draw24%
Rubikon36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pharm
1.54
Rubikon
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 27 away

creates per match

Real Pharm
0.78
Rubikon
0.67

allows per match

Real Pharm
2.20
Rubikon
2.30

finishing

Real Pharm+0.00on par
Rubikon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pharm ↓

Rubikon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Pharm or draw
64%
Real Pharm or Rubikon
76%
Draw or Rubikon
60%

Winning margin

Real Pharm wins by 2+
20%
Rubikon wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Pharm 1+ goals
79%
Real Pharm 2+ goals
45%
Real Pharm 3+ goals
20%
Rubikon 1+ goals
76%
Rubikon 2+ goals
42%
Rubikon 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Real Pharm (draw refunded)
53%
Rubikon (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pharm at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

Rubikon away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pharm attack 0.78 + Rubikon defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rubikon attack 0.67 + Real Pharm defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Pharm scores more
40%
level
24%
Rubikon scores more
36%

Real Pharm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Pharm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Pharm vs Rubikon — Match Preview

Real Pharm face Rubikon on April 30, 2023 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.