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Real Oviedo II vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martín
San Martín
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Real Oviedo II63%
×Draw21%
San Martín17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
2.01
San Martín
0.92

Real Oviedo II creates 118% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 78 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
2.47
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
0.72
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
83%
Real Oviedo II or San Martín
79%
Draw or San Martín
37%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
38%
San Martín wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
87%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
59%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
32%
San Martín 1+ goals
60%
San Martín 2+ goals
23%
San Martín 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
79%
San Martín (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 2.47 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.01

San Martín attack 1.12 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
63%
level
21%
San Martín scores more
17%

Real Oviedo II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Oviedo II 1–0 San Martín

Real Oviedo II beat San Martín 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.