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Real Oviedo II vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
9/15/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Oviedo II42%
×Draw29%
Rayo Majadahonda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
1.25
Rayo Majadahonda
0.98

Real Oviedo II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 72 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
1.04
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
1.00
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
71%
Real Oviedo II or Rayo Majadahonda
71%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
58%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
19%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
71%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
36%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
13%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
62%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
26%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
59%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
42%
level
29%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
29%

Real Oviedo II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Oviedo II 2–2 Rayo Majadahonda

Real Oviedo II and Rayo Majadahonda drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.