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Real Oviedo II vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
10/13/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Oviedo II33%
×Draw30%
Racing Ferrol36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
0.99
Racing Ferrol
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 83 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
1.04
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
1.00
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
64%
Real Oviedo II or Racing Ferrol
70%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
67%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
12%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
63%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
26%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
8%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
65%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
28%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
48%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
33%
level
30%
Racing Ferrol scores more
36%

Racing Ferrol at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Oviedo II 0–1 Racing Ferrol

Racing Ferrol beat Real Oviedo II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.