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Real Oviedo II vs Praviano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Praviano
Praviano
3/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Real Oviedo II58%
×Draw23%
Praviano19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
1.85
Praviano
0.95

Real Oviedo II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 113 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
2.47
Praviano
1.18

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
0.72
Praviano
1.23

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Praviano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Praviano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
81%
Real Oviedo II or Praviano
77%
Draw or Praviano
42%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
34%
Praviano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
84%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
55%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
28%
Praviano 1+ goals
61%
Praviano 2+ goals
25%
Praviano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
75%
Praviano (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Praviano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 2.47 + Praviano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.85

Praviano attack 1.18 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
58%
level
23%
Praviano scores more
19%

Real Oviedo II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Oviedo II 2 – 2 Praviano

Real Oviedo II and Praviano drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.