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Real Oviedo II vs Peña Deportiva — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
1/12/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Oviedo II47%
×Draw26%
Peña Deportiva27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
1.48
Peña Deportiva
1.07

Real Oviedo II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
1.04
Peña Deportiva
1.14

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
1.00
Peña Deportiva
1.93

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Peña Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
73%
Real Oviedo II or Peña Deportiva
74%
Draw or Peña Deportiva
53%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
23%
Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
77%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
43%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
19%
Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
66%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
29%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
63%
Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Peña Deportiva attack 1.14 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
47%
level
26%
Peña Deportiva scores more
27%

Real Oviedo II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Oviedo II 1–3 Peña Deportiva

Peña Deportiva beat Real Oviedo II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.