Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Oviedo II vs Las Rozas — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
CANC
22:00
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
5/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Oviedo II36%
×Draw30%
Las Rozas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
1.06
Las Rozas
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
1.04
Las Rozas
1.00

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
1.00
Las Rozas
1.07

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
67%
Real Oviedo II or Las Rozas
70%
Draw or Las Rozas
64%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
14%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
65%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
29%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
9%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
63%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
26%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
52%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Las Rozas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Las Rozas attack 1.00 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
36%
level
30%
Las Rozas scores more
33%

Real Oviedo II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Oviedo II vs Las Rozas — Match Preview

Real Oviedo II face Las Rozas on May 9, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Oviedo II host Las Rozas at Estadio El Requexón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.