Real Oviedo II 1–1 Langreo: Result & Stats

Real Oviedo II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Langreo

Sergio Ordóñez 7' (OG)

Gabri Rabanillo 66'

2/3/2024

League #875 · Group 1 - 21Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Oviedo II45%

×Draw26%

Langreo29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchLangreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.09

Real Oviedo II

1.44

Langreo

1.09

Real Oviedo II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.67

creates per match

0.78

1.40

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

1.67

Langreo

0.78

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

1.40

Langreo

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Langreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Langreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

71%

Real Oviedo II or Langreo

74%

Draw or Langreo

55%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

22%

Langreo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

76%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

42%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

18%

Langreo 1+ goals

66%

Langreo 2+ goals

30%

Langreo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

61%

Langreo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Langreo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.67 + Langreo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Langreo attack 0.78 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

45%

level

26%

Langreo scores more

29%

Real Oviedo II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Sergio OrdóñezOwn goal

46'

Dani Hernández← Imad Fakir

46'

Nacho López← Sergio Ordóñez

46'

Steven← Joselu Guerra

61'

Xabier Sola← Enol Rodríguez

66'

Gabri Rabanillo

70'

C. Wehbe← Mario Sesè

70'

Izan Gutiérrez← Iván González

70'

Pelayo García← Diego Menéndez

75'

Nacho Estrada← Santi Miguélez

78'

Pablo Ares← Pablo Álvarez

85'

J. Guerra

85'

J. Guerra

90+2'

N. Garcia

Real

Langreo

🥅

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⚽

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▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jaime Álvarez

61'▲Xabier Sola←▼Enol Rodríguez

70'▲C. Wehbe←▼Mario Sesè

70'▲Izan Gutiérrez←▼Iván González

70'▲Pelayo García←▼Diego Menéndez

75'▲Nacho Estrada←▼Santi Miguélez

Real Oviedo II substitutes

SolaWehbeGutiérrezGarcíaEstradaLasoChigozie

Manager: Javier Vázquez

46'▲Dani Hernández←▼Imad Fakir

46'▲Nacho López←▼Sergio Ordóñez

46'▲Steven←▼Joselu Guerra

78'▲Pablo Ares←▼Pablo Álvarez

Langreo substitutes

HernándezLópezStevenAresÁlvarezRodríguezFernández

Match Recap: Real Oviedo II vs Langreo

Real Oviedo II and Langreo drew 1-1 in League #875 on February 3, 2024.

Goals: Sergio Ordóñez (7' o.g.), Gabri Rabanillo (66').

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.

Real Oviedo II vs Langreo — League #875 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Oviedo II vs Langreo