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Real Oviedo II vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
CANC
00:00
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
4/26/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Oviedo II36%
×Draw28%
Celta de Vigo II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
1.17
Celta de Vigo II
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 120 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
1.04
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
1.00
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
64%
Real Oviedo II or Celta de Vigo II
72%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
64%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
15%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
69%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
33%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
11%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
69%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
33%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
50%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
36%
level
28%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
36%

Real Oviedo II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Oviedo II vs Celta de Vigo II — Match Preview

Real Oviedo II face Celta de Vigo II on April 26, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Oviedo II host Celta de Vigo II at Estadio El Requexón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.