Real Oviedo II 3–2 Atlético Madrid II

Real Oviedo II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Atlético Madrid II

12/4/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Oviedo II34%

×Draw28%

Atlético Madrid II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchAtlético Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.23

Real Oviedo II

1.14

Atlético Madrid II

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

1.04

creates per match

1.46

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

1.04

Atlético Madrid II

1.46

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

1.00

Atlético Madrid II

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Atlético Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

62%

Real Oviedo II or Atlético Madrid II

72%

Draw or Atlético Madrid II

66%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

14%

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

68%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

32%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

71%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

35%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

47%

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

34%

level

28%

Atlético Madrid II scores more

38%

Atlético Madrid II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff