Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Oviedo II vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
CANC
00:00
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Oviedo II35%
×Draw32%
Atlético Baleares32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
0.95
Atlético Baleares
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
1.04
Atlético Baleares
0.77

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
1.00
Atlético Baleares
0.85

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
68%
Real Oviedo II or Atlético Baleares
68%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
65%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
61%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
25%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
52%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Atlético Baleares attack 0.77 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
35%
level
32%
Atlético Baleares scores more
32%

Real Oviedo II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Oviedo II face Atlético Baleares (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Real Oviedo II hosting Atlético Baleares. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Oviedo II host Atlético Baleares at Estadio El Requexón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.