Real Oruro 3–0 Royal Pari: Result & Stats

Real Oruro

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Royal Pari

Gustavo Ribeiro 38'

J. Pérez 34' (OG)

A. Bravo 9'

12/23/2024

Primera División · Relegation RoundEstadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Real Oruro52%

×Draw21%

Royal Pari28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real OruroExpected goals in this matchRoyal Pari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.58

Real Oruro

2.21

Royal Pari

1.58

Real Oruro creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 111 away

2.57

creates per match

1.16

2.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Real Oruro

2.57

Royal Pari

1.16

allows per match

Real Oruro

2.00

Royal Pari

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oruro ↓

Royal Pari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Real Oruro or draw

72%

Real Oruro or Royal Pari

79%

Draw or Royal Pari

48%

Winning margin

Real Oruro wins by 2+

31%

Royal Pari wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Oruro 1+ goals

89%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

65%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

38%

Royal Pari 1+ goals

79%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

47%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

65%

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oruro at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

Royal Pari away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.86 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oruro attack 2.57 + Royal Pari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.21

Royal Pari attack 1.16 + Real Oruro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Oruro scores more

52%

level

21%

Royal Pari scores more

28%

Real Oruro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Oruro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Bravo

22'

R. Vargas← W. Velasco

34'

J. PérezOwn goal

38'

Gustavo Ribeiro↳ F. Ojeda

42'

J. Ojeda

45'

A. Moreno

46'

C. Padilla← S. Justiniano

46'

L. Crescencio← J. Pérez

51'

59'

60'

70'

70'

70'

S. Moisés← J. Medrano

76'

F. Suárez← J. Flores

82'

T. Moriceau

83'

Real

Royal

13

Méndez

23

Quiñónes

27

🥅

▼

72

29

7

32

3

8

18

▼

Justinian

30

▼

Flores

25

Huanacota

23

Villegas

3

▼

Medrano

34

Alessandr

10

A

▼

Ojeda

6

▼

Thomas

8

▼

Velasco

21

Moreira

7

⚽

Bravo

5

Chávez

30

⚽

Ribeiro

Manager: D. Gómez

22'▲R. Vargas←▼W. Velasco

60'▲Y. Tenorio←▼F. Ojeda

70'▲Á. Ayala←▼J. Thomas

70'▲S. Moisés←▼J. Medrano

Real Oruro substitutes

22Vargas37Tenorio19Ayala35Moisés27García31Segovia20Mamani24Trazie15Balderrama33Villegas

Manager: D. De la Torre

46'▲C. Padilla←▼S. Justiniano

46'▲L. Crescencio←▼J. Pérez

76'▲F. Suárez←▼J. Flores

Royal Pari substitutes

24Padilla5Crescencio19Suárez87Peña28Velasco17Bonilla20Isita1Peña