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Real Noroeste vs Serra Talhada — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Real Noroeste
Real Noroeste
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Serra Talhada
Serra Talhada
Unknown 73', 67', 25'
Unknown 66', 45', 30', 27'
6/25/2025Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 10Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Real Noroeste52%
×Draw22%
Serra Talhada26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Noroeste
1.90
Serra Talhada
1.29

Real Noroeste creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Real Noroeste
1.80
Serra Talhada
1.10

allows per match

Real Noroeste
1.47
Serra Talhada
2.00

finishing

Real Noroeste+0.00on par
Serra Talhada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Noroeste ↓

Serra Talhada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Noroeste or draw
74%
Real Noroeste or Serra Talhada
78%
Draw or Serra Talhada
48%

Winning margin

Real Noroeste wins by 2+
29%
Serra Talhada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Noroeste 1+ goals
85%
Real Noroeste 2+ goals
56%
Real Noroeste 3+ goals
29%
Serra Talhada 1+ goals
72%
Serra Talhada 2+ goals
37%
Serra Talhada 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Noroeste (draw refunded)
66%
Serra Talhada (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Noroeste at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Serra Talhada away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Noroeste attack 1.80 + Serra Talhada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Serra Talhada attack 1.10 + Real Noroeste defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Noroeste scores more
52%
level
22%
Serra Talhada scores more
26%

Real Noroeste at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Noroeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
27'
30'
45'
66'
67'
73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Espírito Santo: Real Noroeste 3–4 Serra Talhada

Serra Talhada beat Real Noroeste 4-3 in Copa Espírito Santo on June 25, 2025.

Goals: ? (25', 27', 30', 45', 66', 67', 73').

The match was played at Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha in Águia Branca, Espírito Santo.