Real Noroeste 0–3 Santo André: Result & Stats

Real Noroeste

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Santo André

Alexiel Gonçalves 76'

Cláudio Caça-Rato 17' (OG)

Vitinho 10'

6/14/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Real Noroeste44%

×Draw28%

Santo André28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real NoroesteExpected goals in this matchSanto André

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

Real Noroeste

1.31

Santo André

0.98

Real Noroeste creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

1.32

creates per match

0.97

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Real Noroeste

1.32

Santo André

0.97

allows per match

Real Noroeste

1.00

Santo André

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Noroeste+0.00on par

Santo André+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Noroeste ↓

Santo André →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Noroeste or draw

72%

Real Noroeste or Santo André

72%

Draw or Santo André

56%

Winning margin

Real Noroeste wins by 2+

20%

Santo André wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Noroeste 1+ goals

73%

Real Noroeste 2+ goals

38%

Real Noroeste 3+ goals

14%

Santo André 1+ goals

62%

Santo André 2+ goals

26%

Santo André 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Noroeste (draw refunded)

61%

Santo André (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Noroeste at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Santo André away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Noroeste attack 1.32 + Santo André defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Santo André attack 0.97 + Real Noroeste defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Noroeste scores more

44%

level

28%

Santo André scores more

28%

Real Noroeste at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Noroeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Vitinho

17'

Cláudio Caça-RatoOwn goal

59'

Alexiel Gonçalves← Vitinho

63'

Fábio Juninho← Willian Henrique

63'

Paulo Matheus← Guga

63'

Talys← Luis Felipe

64'

Pará← Rafael Chorão

64'

Vinicius Baracioli← Wil Viana

74'

Flávio Torres← Josiel

74'

Xandy← Rodrigo Carioca

76'

Alexiel Gonçalves

77'

Gilbert← Matheus Paulista

77'

Robert← Dudu Pedrotti

88'

Real

Santo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Duzinho Reis

63'▲Fábio Juninho←▼Willian Henrique

63'▲Paulo Matheus←▼Guga

63'▲Talys←▼Luis Felipe

77'▲Gilbert←▼Matheus Paulista

77'▲Robert←▼Dudu Pedrotti

Real Noroeste substitutes

JuninhoMatheusTalysGilbertRobertÂngeloFernandoIagoStefanoKayque

Manager: Matheus Costa

59'▲Alexiel Gonçalves←▼Vitinho

64'▲Pará←▼Rafael Chorão

64'▲Vinicius Baracioli←▼Wil Viana

74'▲Flávio Torres←▼Josiel

74'▲Xandy←▼Rodrigo Carioca

Santo André substitutes

GonçalvesParáBaracioliTorresXandyGabrielPazTavaresPaulo