Real Noroeste 0–1 Resende: Result & Stats | Serie D

Real Noroeste

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Resende

Emerson Urso 63'

6/7/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real Noroeste55%

×Draw25%

Resende20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real NoroesteExpected goals in this matchResende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.85

Real Noroeste

1.59

Resende

0.85

Real Noroeste creates 87% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

1.32

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Real Noroeste

1.32

Resende

0.71

allows per match

Real Noroeste

1.00

Resende

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Noroeste+0.00on par

Resende+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Noroeste ↓

Resende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Noroeste or draw

80%

Real Noroeste or Resende

75%

Draw or Resende

45%

Winning margin

Real Noroeste wins by 2+

29%

Resende wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Noroeste 1+ goals

80%

Real Noroeste 2+ goals

47%

Real Noroeste 3+ goals

21%

Resende 1+ goals

57%

Resende 2+ goals

21%

Resende 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Noroeste (draw refunded)

73%

Resende (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Noroeste at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Resende away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Noroeste attack 1.32 + Resende defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Resende attack 0.71 + Real Noroeste defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Noroeste scores more

55%

level

25%

Resende scores more

20%

Real Noroeste at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Noroeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Luis Felipe← Victor Salvador

60'

Dudu Pedrotti← Robert

60'

Fábio Juninho← Willian Júnior

63'

Emerson Urso

67'

Matheus Guará← Gabriel

74'

João Felipe← Paulo

74'

Kaique← Emerson Urso

80'

Amarildo← Orlando Júnior

80'

Brendon← Geovani

84'

Guga← Talys

90'

Bismarck← Igor Bolt

Real

Resende

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Duzinho Reis

46'▲Luis Felipe←▼Victor Salvador

60'▲Dudu Pedrotti←▼Robert

60'▲Fábio Juninho←▼Willian Júnior

67'▲Matheus Guará←▼Gabriel

84'▲Guga←▼Talys

Real Noroeste substitutes

FelipePedrottiJuninhoGuaráGugaCaça-RatoPaulistaNayanMatheusHenrique

Manager: Eudes Pedro

74'▲João Felipe←▼Paulo

74'▲Kaique←▼Emerson Urso

80'▲Amarildo←▼Orlando Júnior

80'▲Brendon←▼Geovani

90'▲Bismarck←▼Igor Bolt

Resende substitutes

FelipeKaiqueAmarildoBrendonBismarckMatheusCesinhaJoanderson