Real Noroeste 3–1 Águia Negra: Result & Stats

Real Noroeste

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Águia Negra

Marcel Sacramento 65', 51' (pen), 29'

Rafael Franco 81' (pen)

11/21/2020

Serie D · Round 13Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Noroeste67%

×Draw20%

Águia Negra14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real NoroesteExpected goals in this matchÁguia Negra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.83

Real Noroeste

2.10

Águia Negra

0.83

Real Noroeste creates 153% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

1.32

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Real Noroeste

1.32

Águia Negra

0.67

allows per match

Real Noroeste

1.00

Águia Negra

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Noroeste+0.00on par

Águia Negra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Noroeste ↓

Águia Negra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Noroeste or draw

86%

Real Noroeste or Águia Negra

80%

Draw or Águia Negra

33%

Winning margin

Real Noroeste wins by 2+

42%

Águia Negra wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Noroeste 1+ goals

88%

Real Noroeste 2+ goals

62%

Real Noroeste 3+ goals

35%

Águia Negra 1+ goals

56%

Águia Negra 2+ goals

20%

Águia Negra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Noroeste (draw refunded)

83%

Águia Negra (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Noroeste at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Águia Negra away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Noroeste attack 1.32 + Águia Negra defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.10

Águia Negra attack 0.67 + Real Noroeste defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Noroeste scores more

67%

level

20%

Águia Negra scores more

14%

Real Noroeste at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Real Noroeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Marcel Sacramento

35'

Jeferson← Gustavo Henrique

51'

Marcel SacramentoPenalty

55'

Adriano← Savio

55'

Dodo← Mário Lúcio

59'

Jonata

65'

Jolder← Gugu

65'

Marcel Sacramento

75'

Rafael Franco← Filipe Santos

78'

Chiclete← Matheus Firmino

78'

S. López← Igor

78'

Warlison← Ailton

81'

Rafael FrancoPenalty

87'

Icaro Alves← Marcel Sacramento

Real

Águia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Duzinho

35'▲Jeferson←▼Gustavo Henrique

78'▲Chiclete←▼Matheus Firmino

78'▲S. López←▼Igor

78'▲Warlison←▼Ailton

87'▲Icaro Alves←▼Marcel Sacramento

Real Noroeste substitutes

JefersonChicleteLópezWarlisonAlvesJoseJhonatanLuizinhoPatrickPeixotoSantos

Manager: Gelson Conte

55'▲Adriano←▼Savio

55'▲Dodo←▼Mário Lúcio

65'▲Jolder←▼Gugu

75'▲Rafael Franco←▼Filipe Santos

Águia Negra substitutes

AdrianoDodoJolderFrancoTafine

Match Recap: Real Noroeste vs Águia Negra

Real Noroeste beat Águia Negra 3-1 in Serie D on November 21, 2020.

Goals: Marcel Sacramento (29', 51' pen, 65'), Rafael Franco (81' pen).

The match was played at Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha in Águia Branca, Espírito Santo.

Real Noroeste vs Águia Negra — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Noroeste vs Águia Negra