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Real Murcia vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
Preview
16:00
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
1/3/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Estadio Enrique Roca
37%
Real Murcia
model favours
37%30%34%

Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Murcia37%
×Draw30%
Villarreal II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
1.10
Villarreal II
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
66%
Real Murcia or Villarreal II
70%
Draw or Villarreal II
63%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
15%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
67%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
30%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
10%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
65%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
28%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
52%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Murcia scores more
37%
level
30%
Villarreal II scores more
34%

Real Murcia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Murcia
WWLDW
II
LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Murcia vs Villarreal II — Match Preview

Real Murcia face Villarreal II on January 3, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Murcia host Villarreal II at Estadio Enrique Roca.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.