Real Murcia 0–0 Sanluqueño: Result & Stats

Real Murcia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sanluqueño

11/24/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Murcia47%

×Draw29%

Sanluqueño24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MurciaExpected goals in this matchSanluqueño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.84

Real Murcia

1.29

Sanluqueño

0.84

Real Murcia creates 54% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

1.14

creates per match

0.80

0.89

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Real Murcia

1.14

Sanluqueño

0.80

allows per match

Real Murcia

0.89

Sanluqueño

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Sanluqueño →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw

76%

Real Murcia or Sanluqueño

71%

Draw or Sanluqueño

53%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+

22%

Sanluqueño wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals

72%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

37%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

14%

Sanluqueño 1+ goals

57%

Sanluqueño 2+ goals

21%

Sanluqueño 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

66%

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Sanluqueño away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Sanluqueño defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sanluqueño attack 0.80 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Murcia scores more

47%

level

29%

Sanluqueño scores more

24%

Real Murcia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

R. Riera

24'

R. Boateng

37'

A. P. Benito P.

47'

M. Calderon

55'

Álex Valiño← Carlos González

59'

Antonio Toral← Loren Burón

59'

Palmberg← R. Boateng

64'

A. Jaso Zunzarren

68'

Matheus Cadorini← Pedro León

68'

Carlos Rojas← Pedro Benito

68'

Javi Feria← Martín Calderón

81'

Colau← Álex Guti

85'

A. Gonzalez

85'

José Ángel Carrillo← Juan Carlos Real

89'

Moha Moukhliss

Real

Sanluqueño

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fran Fernández

59'▲Antonio Toral←▼Loren Burón

59'▲Palmberg←▼R. Boateng

68'▲Matheus Cadorini←▼Pedro León

68'▲Carlos Rojas←▼Pedro Benito

85'▲José Ángel Carrillo←▼Juan Carlos Real

Real Murcia substitutes

ToralPalmbergCadoriniRojasCarrilloCarmonaSolerCadeteSaveljichPiedraYriarteLarrea

Manager: Mario Fuentes

55'▲Álex Valiño←▼Carlos González

68'▲Javi Feria←▼Martín Calderón

81'▲Colau←▼Álex Guti

Sanluqueño substitutes

ValiñoFeriaColauAlainVegaPuertoEnriqueGarcía-Alejo

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 0–0 Sanluqueño

Real Murcia and Sanluqueño drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.

Real Murcia vs Sanluqueño — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 0–0 Sanluqueño