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Real Murcia vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
9/15/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Murcia46%
×Draw29%
Mérida AD25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
1.29
Mérida AD
0.88

Real Murcia creates 47% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Mérida AD
0.87

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Mérida AD
1.45

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
75%
Real Murcia or Mérida AD
71%
Draw or Mérida AD
54%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
21%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
72%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
37%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
14%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
59%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
22%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
64%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Murcia scores more
46%
level
29%
Mérida AD scores more
25%

Real Murcia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 2–0 Mérida AD

Real Murcia beat Mérida AD 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.