Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Murcia vs Marbella — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Marbella
Marbella
3/11/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Enrique Roca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Murcia50%
×Draw26%
Marbella24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
1.51
Marbella
0.97

Real Murcia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Marbella
1.05

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Marbella
1.89

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Marbella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
76%
Real Murcia or Marbella
74%
Draw or Marbella
50%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
25%
Marbella wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
78%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
44%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
19%
Marbella 1+ goals
62%
Marbella 2+ goals
25%
Marbella 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
67%
Marbella (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Marbella defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Marbella attack 1.05 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Murcia scores more
50%
level
26%
Marbella scores more
24%

Real Murcia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 1–1 Marbella

Real Murcia and Marbella drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca in Murcia.