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Real Murcia vs Malaga — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Malaga
Malaga
11/26/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Murcia31%
×Draw29%
Malaga40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
0.99
Malaga
1.16

Malaga creates 17% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Malaga
1.42

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Malaga
0.84

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Malaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
60%
Real Murcia or Malaga
71%
Draw or Malaga
69%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
11%
Malaga wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
63%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
26%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
8%
Malaga 1+ goals
69%
Malaga 2+ goals
32%
Malaga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
44%
Malaga (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Malaga away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Malaga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.99

Malaga attack 1.42 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Murcia scores more
31%
level
29%
Malaga scores more
40%

Malaga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia vs Malaga

Malaga beat Real Murcia 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.