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Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
4/5/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Enrique Roca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Murcia40%
×Draw29%
Atlético Madrid II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
1.20
Atlético Madrid II
1.04

Real Murcia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
68%
Real Murcia or Atlético Madrid II
71%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
60%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
17%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
70%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
34%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
56%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Murcia scores more
40%
level
29%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
32%

Real Murcia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 2–1 Atlético Madrid II

Real Murcia beat Atlético Madrid II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca in Murcia.