Real Murcia 0–0 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Real Murcia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Amorebieta

1/7/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Real Murcia37%

×Draw30%

Amorebieta33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MurciaExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.98

Real Murcia

1.06

Amorebieta

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 46 away

1.14

creates per match

1.07

0.89

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Real Murcia

1.14

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Real Murcia

0.89

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw

67%

Real Murcia or Amorebieta

70%

Draw or Amorebieta

63%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+

15%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals

65%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

29%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

9%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

62%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

26%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

53%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Murcia scores more

37%

level

30%

Amorebieta scores more

33%

Real Murcia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

V. Lopez

60'

Loren Burón← Santi Jara

64'

E. Urain← J. Yriarte

64'

Gorka Iturraspe← Josué Dorrio

76'

Andrés Carrasco← Pedro León

76'

Armando Ortiz← Pablo Ganet

79'

Juan Rodríguez← Víctor López

79'

Unai Buján← Urko Izeta

80'

J. Murua

86'

Z. Inoussa← Dani Vega

86'

Antonio Jesús← Eneko Jauregi

89'

L. Buron

Real

Amorebieta

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mario Simón

60'▲Loren Burón←▼Santi Jara

76'▲Andrés Carrasco←▼Pedro León

76'▲Armando Ortiz←▼Pablo Ganet

86'▲Z. Inoussa←▼Dani Vega

Real Murcia substitutes

BurónCarrascoOrtizInoussaLópezGallegoOrtizCasadoPedreñoFedorAguzaSerna

Manager: Haritz Mújika

64'▲E. Urain←▼J. Yriarte

64'▲Gorka Iturraspe←▼Josué Dorrio

79'▲Juan Rodríguez←▼Víctor López

79'▲Unai Buján←▼Urko Izeta

86'▲Antonio Jesús←▼Eneko Jauregi

Amorebieta substitutes

UrainIturraspeRodríguezBujánJesúsAlbisuaHerreroMarinoOzerinjauregi

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 0–0 Amorebieta

Real Murcia and Amorebieta drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.

Real Murcia vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 0–0 Amorebieta