Real Murcia II 2–2 Mazarrón FC: Result & Stats

Real Murcia II

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mazarrón FC

9/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Real Murcia II49%

×Draw25%

Mazarrón FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchMazarrón FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.09

Real Murcia II

1.61

Mazarrón FC

1.09

Real Murcia II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 63 away

1.89

creates per match

1.21

0.97

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Real Murcia II

1.89

Mazarrón FC

1.21

allows per match

Real Murcia II

0.97

Mazarrón FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Mazarrón FC →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw

74%

Real Murcia II or Mazarrón FC

75%

Draw or Mazarrón FC

51%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

26%

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

80%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

48%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

22%

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

66%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

30%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

66%

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Murcia II scores more

49%

level

25%

Mazarrón FC scores more

26%

Real Murcia II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC

Real Murcia II and Mazarrón FC drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.

Real Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC