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Real Murcia II vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
CANC
00:00
Mar Menor
Mar Menor
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Murcia II38%
×Draw28%
Mar Menor34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
1.19
Mar Menor
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 26 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
Mar Menor
1.27

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
Mar Menor
0.50

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Mar Menor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
66%
Real Murcia II or Mar Menor
72%
Draw or Mar Menor
62%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
16%
Mar Menor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
70%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
33%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
12%
Mar Menor 1+ goals
67%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
31%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
52%
Mar Menor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
38%
level
28%
Mar Menor scores more
34%

Real Murcia II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Murcia II face Mar Menor (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 returns with Real Murcia II hosting Mar Menor. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Murcia II host Mar Menor at Estadio Campus Universitario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.