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Real Murcia II vs Lorca FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lorca FC
Lorca FC
1/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Murcia II48%
×Draw27%
Lorca FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
1.44
Lorca FC
0.95

Real Murcia II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 14 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
Lorca FC
0.93

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
Lorca FC
1.00

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Lorca FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
75%
Real Murcia II or Lorca FC
73%
Draw or Lorca FC
52%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
24%
Lorca FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
76%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
42%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
18%
Lorca FC 1+ goals
61%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
25%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
66%
Lorca FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
48%
level
27%
Lorca FC scores more
25%

Real Murcia II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Murcia II 2 – 0 Lorca FC

Real Murcia II beat Lorca FC 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.