Real Murcia II 1–1 Huércal Overa: Result & Stats

Real Murcia II

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Huércal Overa

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Real Murcia II59%

×Draw23%

Huércal Overa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.88

Real Murcia II

1.78

Huércal Overa

0.88

Real Murcia II creates 102% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 47 away

1.89

creates per match

0.79

0.97

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Real Murcia II

1.89

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

Real Murcia II

0.97

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw

82%

Real Murcia II or Huércal Overa

77%

Draw or Huércal Overa

41%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

33%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

83%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

53%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

26%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

59%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

22%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

76%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.78

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Murcia II scores more

59%

level

23%

Huércal Overa scores more

18%

Real Murcia II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Huércal Overa

Real Murcia II and Huércal Overa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.

Real Murcia II vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Huércal Overa