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Real Murcia II vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
FT
7 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 25Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Real Murcia II54%
×Draw24%
El Palmar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
1.73
El Palmar
1.00

Real Murcia II creates 73% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 111 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
78%
Real Murcia II or El Palmar
76%
Draw or El Palmar
46%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
30%
El Palmar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
82%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
52%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
25%
El Palmar 1+ goals
63%
El Palmar 2+ goals
26%
El Palmar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
71%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
54%
level
24%
El Palmar scores more
22%

Real Murcia II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs El Palmar

Real Murcia II beat El Palmar 7-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.