Real Murcia II 0–2 Alcantarilla: Result & Stats

Real Murcia II

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Alcantarilla

2/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Real Murcia II60%

×Draw23%

Alcantarilla16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchAlcantarilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.78

Real Murcia II

1.74

Alcantarilla

0.78

Real Murcia II creates 123% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 49 away

1.89

creates per match

0.59

0.97

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Real Murcia II

1.89

Alcantarilla

0.59

allows per match

Real Murcia II

0.97

Alcantarilla

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Alcantarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Alcantarilla →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw

84%

Real Murcia II or Alcantarilla

77%

Draw or Alcantarilla

40%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

34%

Alcantarilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

82%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

52%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

25%

Alcantarilla 1+ goals

54%

Alcantarilla 2+ goals

18%

Alcantarilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

79%

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Alcantarilla away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Alcantarilla defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.74

Alcantarilla attack 0.59 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Murcia II scores more

60%

level

23%

Alcantarilla scores more

16%

Real Murcia II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Alcantarilla

Alcantarilla beat Real Murcia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.

Real Murcia II vs Alcantarilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Alcantarilla